Thanks to a thunderous scream from an anticipated sequel, the box office is back.

Writer/director John Krasinki’s A Quiet Place Part II opened over the 3-day weekend with $48.3M and a whopping $58.5M over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. This four day holiday opening is right in line with the tracking for the film pre-pandemic, which obviously represents a major win for Paramount, who released the film. In addition, it’s ahead of the four day opening of the original A Quiet Place, which took in $54.4M in early April 2018.

This is the biggest opening for a film since the pandemic began, besting Godzilla Vs. Kong‘s $48.1M five-day opening in late March/early April of this year. That film took in $31.6M over it’s traditional three day weekend and also had the benefit of a holiday thanks to Easter. Godzilla Vs. Kong’s opening was a major sign that more audiences wanted to go back to the cinema, and this weekend the Emily Blunt-starring sequel only offered more proof of that. This opening clearly is a huge win for an industry trying to return to normal, and represents the official kick off to the summer box office season, which usually begins on the last weekend of April or the first weekend of May (often with a Marvel movie).

Looking to A Quiet Place 2‘s domestic box office future, it should have better legs than our last big opener (Godzilla Vs. Kong) for a multitude of reasons.

A) Godzilla Vs. Kong was also available on HBO Max for no additional charge for the first 45 days GvK was in theaters, where AQP2 is playing exclusively in theaters for its first 45 days.

B) AQP2 has the benefit of coming off a beloved predecessor that built great word of mouth throughout its theatrical run and even further onto it’s home video/streaming release. GvK was coming off of not one, but two Godzilla movies that had mixed word of mouth and a massive box office disappointment in Godzilla: King of the Monsters (which grossed $110.5M domestic, down from Godzilla 2014’s $200.6M and even 2017’s Kong: Skull Island’s $168.1M).

C) AQP2 has been received better by both audiences and critics. On review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, A Quiet Place 2 has a 91% approval rating from critics and a 94% from audiences. GvK currently has a 75% from critics and 91% from audiences. However, CinemaScore, which polls opening day audiences, is closer with AQP2 receiving an A- and GvK getting an A. Cinemascore grades are mostly useful in factoring in how those who were most excited for the film enjoyed it, as those are the folks who rush out to see a movie opening day.

I do expect AQP2 to become our first $100M domestic grosser since Sonic The Hedgehog made $149M just before the pandemic began. Crossing the $100M threshold will be a huge deal, as the top grosses in the pandemic era before GvK were Tenet with $58.3M and The Croods: A New Age, also with $58.3M. For the record, I believe Godzilla Vs. Kong will limp past the $100M milestone as well in the coming weeks, just after AQP2. GvK currently has $98.3M, and made an additional $800,000 this weekend, which was down a not-bad-at-all 39% from last weekend. However, it will continue to drop faster as a barrage of new releases enter the market from June through August.

The bigger question is if Quiet Place 2 can come close to the original film’s $188M. The short answer is “probably not.” Not only do original films almost always have better opening weekend to total gross multiples, but since $188M is almost double anything we’ve seen a movie do in the pandemic era, the odds seem stacked against it. However, there are many reasons to be optimistic. With more people getting vaccinated and folks beginning to experience the movies again at their own pace, there’s a chance this well-liked sequel plays big even as new movies like The Conjuring 3, In The Heights, and Fast and Furious 9 open. I’m hopeful we can see it see it get to $120M. If it plays like a typical Memorial Day release with solid buzz, then it could go even higher ($140M? $150M?). Here’s hoping.

Stay tuned for my report on the other big opener this weekend, Cruella!

Published by Seth Dayrich

Founder of WSYS and writer of two motion pictures (Catching Summer, Dan's Humongous Apartment) and a play (The Restaurant Tango). View all posts by Seth Dayrich